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COP29: Exponentially scaling solutions to phase out fossil fuels

COP29: Driving Exponential Solutions to Phase Out Fossil Fuels

At the heart of the climate conversation at COP29 lies an urgent imperative: the exponential scaling of solutions to decisively phase out the fossil economy. This panel discussion, brought together by the Exponential Roadmap Initiative, in collaboration with We Don’t Have Time, gathered strategic leaders across sustainability, investment and innovation to explore how we can leverage collaboration and investment to rapidly scale solutions that will outpace the climate crisis.

Accelerating climate solutions with rigorous frameworks

Johan Falk, Co-founder and CEO of the Exponential Roadmap Initiative, emphasised the urgency of scaling climate solutions to halve global emissions by 2030 and move towards net zero. While technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles have reached tipping points and are scaling exponentially, many other solutions lag behind. Falk highlighted the critical need to shift more innovations “over the tipping point” and accelerate their adoption to address the climate crisis effectively. Johan Falk:

The science is very clear. We should halve emissions by 2030 and protect nature and move towards net zero. But we all know that we are not on track. One of the reasons for that, is that the solutions we need, to shift out the fossil economy, they are not scaling sufficiently fast enough.

We do have solutions like renewable energy, electric vehicles, which are following this exponential trajectory and which have passed a tipping point, but we have a number of solutions we have to take over the tipping point and shift the curves to the left. So, it’s incredibly important that we don’t just focus on the down curves, but actually the upper curves.

To ensure true climate solutions receive the recognition and support they need, the Exponential Roadmap Initiative developed the Climate Solutions Framework (CSF) designed to qualify innovations based on integrity and alignment with science-aligned targets. This framework provides a stringent structure to evaluate whether solutions are cutting emissions sufficiently while adhering to essential guardrails, such as nature protection.

Innovative climate solutions: Insights from industry leaders

Johan Mandaric Reunanen, Director of Sustainability at Stegra, previously H2 Green Steel, detailed the company’s ambitious efforts to decarbonise the steel industry through green hydrogen and green steel production. Stegra aims to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 95% compared to conventional methods. Set to commence operations of its green steel plant by 2026, this project is a step towards transforming a historically high-emission sector. Johan Mandaric Reunanen:

Stegra is a company founded just four years ago, where our purpose is to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors. We do that by, really at scale, producing green hydrogen, green iron and green steel. We have our first, giga project in the northern part of Sweden, where we’re currently building a 2.5 million tonne, green steel plant. So, the green steel that we’re producing will abate up to 95% of CO2 compared to conventional steel.

As Sustainable Eating and Public Affairs Manager at Oatly, Niklas Kaskeala highlighted the company’s mission to replace animal-based products with oat-based alternatives. The food sector contributes roughly one-third of global emissions, with the majority stemming from animal agriculture. Oatly focuses on creating climate-friendly and healthier options that shift consumer habits, maximising positive environmental impacts. Kaskeala underscored the need for urgency in transforming food systems, a theme he noted has been underrepresented at COPs until recently. Niklas Kaskeala:

We’ve been a frontrunner in scaling plant based solutions that can replace animal based food. One third of our global emissions is linked to the food system and the vast majority of those emissions come from animal-based products. So we really need to do something about that. This is not about minimising harm, but actually maximising positive impact. How can we switch consumers to a more healthy, to a more climate and environmentally friendly option? Our biggest impact comes from converting people away from those products that are not only harmful for the planet, but quite often for our health as well, towards better options.

Priya Bhullar, COO and Co-founder of Planboo, stressed the importance of carbon removal as a complement to emission reductions. Her company specialises in biochar, a solution that draws CO2 from the atmosphere while regenerating degraded soils. With projects in eight countries, Planboo has removed 10,000 tonnes of CO2 to date and is scaling rapidly, targeting 100,000 tonnes by next year and 100 million tonnes by 2030. Bhullar framed carbon removal as essential for addressing both historical emissions and current climate challenges. Priya Bhullar:

Carbon removal is an incredible solution as we can remove the emissions from today, from last year, from the year before, and we can keep going. We could actually take our atmosphere emissions to pre-industrial times and even heal the planet.

 

There are many different types of carbon removal in that plan, but we focus on biochar. We’re able to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere and also remediate some of the most degraded soils in the world. We have eight projects to date in seven different countries. We work right from Colombia over to Tanzania. We’ve removed 10,000 tonnes of CO2 to date, and we’re on track to remove 100,000 next year and on to 100 million by 2030.

Henrik Tegnér, Head of Strategy & Sustainability at AFRY, described how the company provides engineering services to design and implement critical climate solutions, including renewable energy and green industrial projects. AFRY’s role as a service provider extends to assessing the environmental impact of their client portfolios and projects. Tegnér highlighted AFRY’s collaboration with the Exponential Roadmap Initiative to pioneer the Professional Services Matrix, helping professional services companies align their project and client portfolios with net zero goals. Henrik Tegnér:

We work with at least two of the three other companies that are here on some of their innovative solutions. Even if we are not the climate solution ourselves, our clients have the climate solutions and for us that is quite important to them to be able to categorise what is done. How do we understand then, the footprint that we have and how progressive our project portfolio and client portfolio is? That’s where we’re pioneering.

Hugh Garnett, Senior Programme Manager at the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC), outlined how the organisation supports its 400 investor members in managing climate risk and seizing opportunities in climate mitigation and adaptation. Through the Net Zero Investment Framework, IIGCC promotes setting ambitious targets and allocating capital towards scalable solutions. Garnett also highlighted recent guidance for renewable energy infrastructure investment, aligning with global goals to triple renewables by 2030, while expanding support to other critical climate solutions. Hugh Garnett:

We have the Net Zero Investment Framework that’s the most widely used investment framework by asset owners and asset managers to set targets, develop transition plans and, as a part of that, we recommend that investors set targets to allocate capital to climate solutions. Because we know that we don’t just need to drive down emissions, we really need to scale up investment into these solutions.

Watch the session (32 minutes):

COP29: Exponential Scaling of Climate Solutions to Scale out the Fossil Economy

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